Saturday, January 21, 2012

Great Financial Crisis? What Great Financial Crisis?

That seems to be the attitude in 2011. Which worries us at, because we do not believe that the underlying problems have been solved. If anything, they have been exacerbated.
World Economic Statistics at a Glance - 2011 Forecast
World GDP (PPP): $78.092 trillion
GDP Growth Rate: 3.3%
GDP Per Capita (PPP): $11,100
GDP By Sector: Services 63.4%, Industry 30.8%, Agriculture 5.8%
Growth In Trade Volume: 6.953%
Industrial Production Growth Rate: 4.6%
Population: 6.768 billion
Population Growth Rate: 1.133%
Urban Population: 50.5%
Urbanization Rate: 1.85% (125 million people move to cities every year)
The Poor (Income below $2 per day): Approx 3.25 billion (~ 50%)
Millionaires: Approx 10 million (~ 0.15%)
Labor Force: 3.232 billion
Inflation Rate - Developed Countries: 2.5%
Inflation Rate - Developing Countries: 5.6%
Unemployment Rate: 8.8%
Investment: 23.4% of GDP
Public Debt: 58.3% of GDP
Market Value of Publicly Traded Companies: $48.85 trillion, or 62.6% of World GDP
Sources: Economic Statistics Database, CIA World Factbook, IMF, World Bank
The World Economy in 2010 was worth $74.007 trillion in GDP terms, using the Purchasing Price Parity (PPP) method of valuation. This is expected to grow to $78.092 trillion in 2011.
The overall global economy averaged a 3.2 per cent growth rate between 2000 and 2007, suffering a slight dip in 2001 - 2002 thanks to the Dot Com Crash, but continuing to grow throughout that period. In fact 2004 - 2007 were boom years. The Emerging Markets, led by the giants of China, India, Russia and Brazil (the BRIC countries) had been posting 7 per cent - 10 per cent growth rates for years. Property and stock market booms had brought consistent growth in North America and Europe. Investment was bringing economic development to much of the Middle East and Africa, and even Japan was recovering from its deflationary 'Lost Years'.
Economic conditions within these countries play a major role in setting the economic atmosphere of less well-to-do nations and their economies. In many aspects, developing and less developed economies depend on the developed countries for their economic wellbeing.
Theories were even circulating that thanks to the growth of the developing world, we might enjoy years of unfettered growth, as new markets would go through successive growth spurts and counter the effects of slowing growth elsewhere. It was suggested that Asia was 'decoupling' from the US and able to grow under its own steam thanks to its two 'Awakening Giants'.
Sadly, that turned out to be hogwash, as deregulation allowed western banks to build up unsustainable levels of debt that brought the global economy to the brink of depression.
As the 'Sub-Prime' Crisis morphed into a fully fledged crash then global Financial Crisis, 2008 started to bomb and 2009 became the first year that the world recorded a loss in GDP since World War II. 2.031% was wiped out of the global economy - or $3.3 trillion of value.
We are now in what the IMF calls a 'Two Speed Recovery Process'.

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